McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

384
FXUS63 KGLD 041828
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1228 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms this afternoon and early evening are forecast
  to move across the region. Hail up to one inch and patchy
  blowing dust reducing visibility to a mile would be the
  primary hazards with these storms.

- Tuesday night through Wednesday, a rain/snow mix is forecast
  along and west of Kansas 27. Visibility down to 1 mile and a
  couple inches of snow accumulations may lead to slick and
  hazardous conditions.

- Tuesday and Wednesday nights, temperatures are forecast to
  cool into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Sensitive vegetation may
  be impacted by freezing temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Today, the 500 mb pattern becomes notably more active. In the
afternoon/evening, a Polar low near the Great Lakes will extend a
trough to the southwest, linking up with another low moving east
over the California coast. To the south, we`ll have the remnants of
the high decaying into a weak ridge. As this is happening in the
upper levels, an 850 mb low will strengthen over the CWA, dragging
in a late afternoon cold front. These features will cause widespread
vorticity Monday evening and overnight, which is the driving force
for our next decent round at precipitation.

Before the precipitation and cold front, temperatures will warm into
the upper 70s and low 80s, driving RH values across the area into
the mid teens, especially south of a weak dryline. As of 1730Z, this
dryline is seen on radar and observations draping across
northeastern Wichita county, arcing up to the Kit Carson and
Cheyenne (CO) county border. Fire weather threats are still low as
winds are forecast to remain under 20 kts ahead of the front.
However, occasional gusts up around 25 kts may occur, leading to
isolated briefly critical fire weather conditions.

The cold front is currently expected to enter the CWA from the
north/northeast around 19-21Z. The cold front, the aforementioned
dryline, and another weaker dryline, working with the 500 mb
vorticity will kick off convection this afternoon in two main areas.
The cold front will start some convection across the northern CWA,
which will trend to the east-southeast. The second dryline is very
weak, but basically runs just south of I-70 through Kansas before it
meets with the first dryline. Between the two dry lines is a moist
sector. This is the area we`re most worried about strong to severe
storms occurring due to better forcing. Recent model guidance now
shows locations along I-70 initiating at 19-22Z. Instability and
shear across the area looks low-end marginal to support severe
weather. Most likely threats from these storms would be 0.5-1 inch
hail and 40-55 MPH winds kicking up some blowing dust. Due to the
storm mode being more of a cluster, the threat of a wall of dust is
low, but any strong outflows could reduce visibility to less than a
mile in a plume. Lightning striking ahead of the precipitation could
also produce a fire threat. The strongest storms look to occur
between 20-02Z, becoming more stratiform after this time.

Tonight, temperatures look to cool into the 30s across most of the
area. The stratiform precipitation is expected to persist on and off
through the night. Embedded storms are possible, but there is
basically no threat of severe weather in the overnight hours. There
is a 10% chance some snow could mix in early Tuesday morning in the
northwestern CWA, but no impacts or accumulation are expected.

Throughout the day Tuesday, precipitation will persist and
temperatures will remain capped in the 40s to low 50s. We could
still see some embedded storms, but no severe weather is expected.

Overnight Tuesday, temperatures will cool into the upper 20s to mid
30s, due to CAA and the ongoing precipitation absorbing latent heat.
As mentioned, the precipitation will be continuing and we are
expecting snow to mix in. Most likely areas to see snow by Wednesday
morning will be along and west of KS 27. Light accumulations of snow
are possible, but roadways will likely become a slushy mix with
patchy ice.

Snowfall totals by Wednesday morning could be a couple of inches in
eastern Colorado, but the NBM is on the higher side of QPF
forecasts. To highlight this, NBM 10th percentile shows areas west
of U.S. receiving 0.5" of QPF and eastern Colorado receiving over
an inch. Looking at the REFS, the mean amount for the same time
period is 0.3" and 0.65" for the same areas. However, REFS mean
snowfall accumulation by 12Z Wednesday is very similar to the
NBM/NDFD, implying more of the precipitation will occur Tuesday
night as snow. Currently, no advisories have been issued for the
winter precipitation, but we may need one in eastern Colorado in the
coming forecast cycles.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Sun May 3 2026

***Synopsis***

High amplitude, positively tilted troughing in the upper levels
looks to lie just to the west of the forecast area Tuesday
morning. At the same time, northerly surface winds will be in
place after the passage of a cold front, in addition to a broad
convergence zone across Kansas associated with a slow- moving
surface low in Colorado. Ensemble guidance favors this pattern
to last through Wednesday evening when the troughing moves off
to the east and a split flow develops across the West Coast.
Consequentially, northwesterly flow is forecast to overspread
the area aloft starting Thursday, lasting through the end of the
period. Current guidance suggests that this pattern may persist
through the end of the forecast period.

***Tuesday/Wednesday***

As troughing moves across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, and
northerly surface flow remains, cooler conditions appear
favored. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid-40s
to mid-50s, and low-40s to low-50s respectively. Additionally,
the convergence zone across Kansas looks to produce
precipitation across the CWA both days. NBM 48 hour
precipitation guidance suggests around a 50- 70% chance for
greater than 0.25 inches of precipitation across portions of
Eastern Colorado, Southwest Nebraska, and far Northwest Kansas
between Tuesday and Wednesday. This activity does not appear to
be convective, as LREF guidance suggests a 75% chance or greater
for less than 100 J/kg of CAPE (instability) to be present.
Rather, this activity is favored to be driven synoptically by
low-level convergence, mid-level warming, and incoming cyclonic
motion aloft. As temperatures cool both nights, rain may
transition into snow, most particularly in counties along the
Eastern Colorado Border where below freezing temperatures may be
experienced overnight. Lows are currently forecast in the
upper-20s to mid-30s Tuesday, and mid- 20s to lower-30s
Wednesday. There is reason to believe that Wednesday`s low
temperatures may be lower than the current forecast due to cool,
wet, and cloudy conditions during the day, and cloud cover
clearing overnight. NBM 25th percentile low temperatures across
much of Eastern Colorado are in the lower-20s both days.
Confidence is increasing that a Freeze Watch will be needed, at
around 30-50% both days.

***Thursday-Sunday***

Ensemble guidance indicates that northwesterly flow will
persist through the end of the forecast period. Several embedded
shortwave systems will have the opportunity to impact the
forecast area during this time. Current forecast guidance
suggests that warmer conditions are favored to return, with
highs in the low to mid-70s across most of the region Thursday,
Friday, and Sunday, and upper-70s to lower- 80s Saturday. A
couple of shortwave systems on Thursday and Friday may be
associated with showers. LREF guidance suggests as high as a 40%
chance for greater than 100 J/kg of CAPE across portions of
Eastern Colorado both days, whereas NBM suggests around a 20%
chance or less for all locations in the CWA for greater than
0.01 inches of rainfall from these showers. A stronger shortwave
may produce slightly stronger, more widespread showers on
Saturday, with LREF showing up to a 40% chance for more than 200
J/kg of CAPE, and up to a 20% chance from the NBM that greater
than 0.1 inches of rain occurs. Still, light rain from this
system seems to be the most likely scenario. Chances for showers
may continue on Sunday from embedded shortwave activity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Worsening conditions are expected for both KGLD and KMCK
through the period. Winds will be variable before a cold front
moves in from the north. Behind the front, winds will become
northeasterly and gust up around 25 kts. Soon after, storms are
expected to start forming and move east. Storms will weaken into
fairly widespread precipitation, with KGLD being on the
southern end of the best precipitation chances. Off and on
precipitation chances will persist into Wednesday.

Around sunrise tomorrow morning, patchy fog and ceilings may
drop airports to IFR or even minimums. The ceilings look to
persist through at least the bulk of tomorrow. Temperatures will
be cooling and low level icing will become a major threat over
the next several days.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...CA