McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

624
FXUS63 KGLD 191638
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1038 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temps will persist through the remainder of
  the week, culminating in record or near-record highs (for the
  month of March) on Saturday.

- Fire Weather Watch in effect along/north of I-70 on Saturday.

- Strong northerly winds will accompany a cold frontal passage
  late Saturday night and Sunday morning. Blowing dust is possible
  during the frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1241 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The short-term is dominated by an approaching high pressure
system over the southwestern CONUS. This will put us under
northwesterly flow, which could allow for some weak shortwaves
that cause light forcing. However, down in the lower levels, dry
conditions will prevail and precipitation is not expected from
the lack of moisture. This will also allow temperatures to climb
over the next several days as skies remain fairly clear.

Temperatures today have been bumped up a few degrees, mainly
due to westerly flow and 850 mb temperatures warming into the
20-25C range. As it stands, temperatures are forecast to warm
into the 80s, with the warmest temperatures in the southeastern
CWA. Tomorrow, temperatures are forecast to be fairly similar as
today`s. Due to the more northerly flow and 850 mb temperatures
still being in the 20-25 C range, as well as slightly stronger
wind mixing the PBL, the warming trend is expected to be
stunted. However, there is a 35% chance locations in the
southeastern CWA reach into the low 90s. Record high
temperatures are in jeopardy, more information can be found in
the climate section below. Overnight low temperatures are
forecast to remain in the 40s.

As far fire weather concerns go, they are pretty low. Winds
during the afternoon are forecast to remain under 20 kts as RH
values drop to around 10-15%. Confidence for pockets of brief
critical fire weather conditions is about 40-50%, highest south
of U.S. 36. However, confidence in Red Flag Warning criteria
being met is only around 5%.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Saturday remains forecast to be one of the hottest days so far
with high temperatures forecast to reach the 90s. Some 100s for
eastern portions of the area is not out of the question. Most
locations are forecast to set new record temperatures. The good
news for people that don`t like heat is that the upper ridge
driving this is forecast to collapse during the day as an upper
trough begins to push into the Northern Plains. With the hot
temperatures, relative humidity is forecast to drop into the
single digits and teens. This does lead to some critical fire
weather concerns, though the limiting factor remains the wind.
Right now, the forecast timing of the system pushing a low/front
near through the area is during the evening and overnight hours
Saturday. With this and the ridge axis shifting over the area,
the pressure and height gradients are forecast to remain weak
and keep winds generally below 20 mph. The thing that could
change that is that there is chance that the trough could dig
south a little faster as suggested by the GEFS and European
ensembles. In this case, the pressure and height gradients would
be a bit tighter and allow for wind gusts around 30-35 mph
while we have the very low humidity. Due to this, a Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Saturday.

The Fire Weather Watch does continue overnight as the front
passing could allow for a period where winds are stronger in the
wake of the front (20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph) while RH
is still around or below 15% and not fully recovered. Currently
the chance for winds to reach High Wind Warning criteria is less
than 10%, so the main concern is for lingering critical fire
weather conditions. Blowing dust may also become a concern if
the winds are on the stronger side of the forecast, especially
with the front passing through very dry conditions.

Sunday and Monday are forecast to be on the cooler side in the
wake of the cold front. High temperatures are forecast to be in
the 60s and 70s with lows Monday below freezing. The lower
temperatures are forecast to keep relative humidity generally in
the 20s or higher, which should help keep the chances for
critical fire weather conditions low. That being said, there may
still be some increased fire danger with winds forecast to be
around 10-20 mph and gusts in the 25-40 mph range both days
behind the system.

Tuesday-Thursday are forecast to see temperatures warm as
another upper ridge slides into the Southwestern United States.
However, like this weekend, another trough is forecast to follow
up and flatten the ridge. This should bring another system
through the area. The issue is when as guidance has been jumping
around a bit and ensembles show a 24 hour spread mainly around
Wednesday. Should the system push through late Wednesday or
Thursday, we could see hot temperatures again with highs in the
90s. Otherwise, the current main concern is that critical fire
weather may develop any of these days depending on the winds as
dry conditions are forecast to remain in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period at both
terminals. Aside from transient wisps of cirrus at or above
~20,000 ft AGL, clear skies will otherwise prevail. Light (7-14
knot) W to NW winds are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Daily and monthly high temperature records may be in jeopardy
on Friday and Saturday (March 20-21). High temperatures records
are listed below (in Fahrenheit). Note: * indicates a record set
on multiple years. For simplicity, the most recent record is
listed.

=================================
 Record Highs for March 20 (Fri)
=================================
Burlington.........87 in 1907
Goodland...........90 in 1907
Hill City..........88 in 1916
McCook.............85 in 1997*

=================================
 Record Highs for March 21 (Sat)
=================================
Burlington.........84 in 2011
Goodland...........84 in 2011*
Hill City..........93 in 1907
McCook.............89 in 1910

=================================
  Monthly Record Highs (March)
=================================
Burlington......93 on 03-19-1921
Goodland........90 on 03-20-1907*
Hill City.......94 on 03-16-2015*
McCook..........93 on 03-16-2015*

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for KSZ001>004-014>016.
CO...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for COZ252.
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Vincent
CLIMATE...CA/Trigg/Vincent